At this stage, the Clinton campaign baffles me. As far as I can see, her only path to the nomination is through re-doing the Florida and Michigan primaries (which they’ve already rejected), getting 2/3 or more of the remaining super-delegates to vote for her, or waiting for Obama to implode a la Muskie in 1968. Or a combination of them all. All this in combination with a scorched-Earth campaign to make Obama unelectable.

Is it just me, or is this complete insanity?

Over and over, I’ve said two things: that Hillary would make a fine President (although her campaign’s recent [i.e., in the last month and a half or so] behavior is giving me serious cause to reconsider), and that she can’t possibly win the general election. And I’ve seen nothing in this campaign that causes me to reassess the latter opinion. Consider:

• Hillary’s negatives are remarkably consistent, between 45-55%.
• A Hillary candidacy will bring out the wing-nuts in droves. Right now they’re apathetic. (Do the Hillary people want to wake that slumbering giant?)
• Hillary’s current option–a scorched-Earth campaign followed by an overturn of the “regular” delegates by the “super” delegates–is almost guaranteed to alienate a lot of the new people who voted in the primary. How many will stay home? (In my view: a lot.)
• With the Clinton’s there’s always something for opponents to shoot at. Her Bosnia thing. Her “peace in Northern Ireland” thing. Bill’s stupid statements.
  Something. And that’s without the Right rehashing all the past stuff to invoke Clinton fatigue.

This is not sexism; this is not Hillary Hate; this is just a gimlet-eyed view of the current situation. I’m sure Clinton has pollsters and strategists and position papers up the wazoo showing how she can overcome all that, if she does all the right things. For one, I don’t believe it. For another, hasn’t her campaign shown so far that she can’t do all the right things? (No campaign can, durn it!)

So why is she continuing? I can think of a few reasons, but none of them are very flattering, honestly. And speaking personally, I just wish she’d friggin’ quit!

Well, Clinton won two states and eked out a narrow vote win here in Texas.

My position is–and always has been–that Hillary would make a perfectly fine President, but that there’s no way she can win in November. No way. The youth vote that supported Obama will stay home; the Republicans who are currently apathetic (at best) over McCain will be galvanized, and she will lose. So it’s a complete bafflement to me that people continue to vote for her.

So I’m depressed. Because I’m tired of this campaign and want it over. Because I’m tired of the Clintons and want them off the stage. Because I’m convinced that the campaign is now going to descend to mutual mud-slinging, and I’m friggin’ sick of that. And because I’m convinced that the longer this goes on, the greater the chance of a Republican win in November.

So I’m depressed. How about you?

Finished with the “precinct convention” (i.e., caucus) portion of the vote. The caucus started at about 7:15, and was still going on when I left at about 8:15. What I experienced sounds pretty different from what I’ve read about the Iowa process (probably because we’re down to 2 candidates).

At 7:15, lines were formed for each candidate–a line for Clinton and a line for Obama, and each person “signed in,” pledging their caucus vote to a particular candidate. There was no trying to talk Edwards supporters over to the Obama or Hillary side, or any of that; you just signed your name in the appropriate place (with your address, after showing either an ID that they checked against the rolls, or the little card they gave you earlier in the day that said, in effect, “Yuppers, I voted!”), and that was it. After everyone signed, there were be the proportional distribution of delegates for the district, followed by the delegate selection.

There were easily two Obama volunteers for every Clinton volunteer. There were also far more Obama people–I would guess between 2 and 3-1 out of a crowd that looked to me to be between 200-300 people (in a township that only has a stated population of about 1100!). This part of Austin would look to be heavy Obama territory.

At 8:15, there were still lines to sign in. There were now two lines for each candidate, and there was basically no waiting at the “Hillary” lines, with plenty of people still in the “Obama” lines. The Obama people were a big cross-section of folks–mostly white (Austin is pretty heavily Caucasian), but a few African-Americans and Indian-Americans. They covered all the age spectrum, and were men and women both. The Clinton folks were heavily female.

It wasn’t a “contact sport” here in Rollingwood, but when something like 60% of the adult population of the district shows up to vote for a single party’s primary, that’s pretty amazing.

School (and, one presumes, most UT classes) is out, and the difference on the street is startling. Lots of Obama supporters out on the street, waving signs at passing cars, encouraging people who are driving by. Didn’t see any Hillary supporters, but I’m not exactly plowing through downtown; still out in the Rollingwood area.

Just got another campaign phone call, this time from Michelle Obama telling me that the polls close in just over two hours, and reminding me about the funkiness of the Texas pri-caucus. Impressive saturation. Still no Hillary calls. What’s up with that?